Championship Contenders - Week 14

CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS Season 2025-26

Here's where the race stands heading into Week 14.

All three sources agree: the Thunder are the top title contender this week. The Spurs (20.45%) follow at #2, trending up. The Pistons (18.93%) sit at #3, cooling off.

#	Team	Prob	BBRef	Books	Δ
1	Thunder 61-16	25.42%	#1	#1	–
2	Spurs 59-19	20.45%	#2	#3	↑1
3	Pistons 56-21	18.93%	#3	#7	↓1
4	Celtics 51-25	16.43%	#4	#2	–
5	Knicks 50-28	11.13%	#5	#6	–
6	Nuggets 49-28	5.25%	#7	#4	–
7	Cavaliers 48-29	2.26%	#6	#5	–

Sources: Basketball Reference Championship Odds · Rotowire futures, as of April 3, 2026.

#1 Thunder (61-16) | 25.42%

Off Rtg: 118.8 (#7) · Def Rtg: 107.5 (#1) · Net Rtg: +11.3 (#1)

Holds the top spot for another week. Small gain in title probability this week (25.09% to 25.42%). The Thunder continue to separate from the field. Solid on both sides of the ball.

#2 Spurs (59-19) | 20.45%

Off Rtg: 119.4 (#5) · Def Rtg: 111.3 (#3) · Net Rtg: +8.1 (#2)

Climbed 1 position this week, up from #3. Title probability ticking up, from 19.49% to 20.45%. All three models within a single position. Minor positional difference only. Dominant on both sides of the ball.

#3 Pistons (56-21) | 18.93%

Off Rtg: 117.5 (#10) · Def Rtg: 109.7 (#2) · Net Rtg: +7.9 (#3)

Down 1 spot from last week (#2). Minor dip in title probability (19.86% to 18.93%). Our model and BBRef are more bullish than the books (#7). Solid on both sides of the ball.

#4 Celtics (51-25) | 16.43%

Off Rtg: 120.4 (#2) · Def Rtg: 112.7 (#4) · Net Rtg: +7.7 (#4)

Holding at #4 for another week. Small gain in title probability this week (15.73% to 16.43%). Favored by the books (#2) but our model is less convinced. Elite on both ends.

#5 Knicks (50-28) | 11.13%

Off Rtg: 119.9 (#3) · Def Rtg: 113.6 (#7) · Net Rtg: +6.2 (#5)

Holding at #5 for another week. Title probability slipped slightly, from 11.47% to 11.13%. Near-consensus across all three sources, within one spot of each other. No standout weakness. Balanced roster profile.

#6 Nuggets (49-28) | 5.25%

Off Rtg: 122.2 (#1) · Def Rtg: 117.4 (#21) · Net Rtg: +4.8 (#7)

Unchanged at #6 from last week. Title probability ticking up, from 4.94% to 5.25%. Books see them at #4, ahead of where our model places them. Powered by a top-1 offense. Defensive ranking (#21) is a concern.

#7 Cavaliers (48-29) | 2.26%

Off Rtg: 119.1 (#6) · Def Rtg: 115.0 (#15) · Net Rtg: +4.0 (#9)

Unchanged at #7 from last week. Title probability slipped slightly, from 3.37% to 2.26%. Ranked lower by our model than Basketball Reference (#6) and the books (#5). Neither the offense nor the defense stand out.

Since 2012, every NBA champion has been flagged by our model as a genuine contender.