Here's where the race stands heading into Week 15.
All three sources agree: the Thunder are the top title contender this week. The Pistons (18.38%) and Spurs (18.04%) follow behind, both cooling off.
New to the shortlist this week: the Houston Rockets.
| # | Team | Prob | BBRef | Books | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Thunder
64-16
|
23.22% | #1 | #1 | – |
| 2 |
Pistons
58-22
|
18.38% | #3 | #7 | ↑1 |
| 3 |
Spurs
61-20
|
18.04% | #2 | #2 | ↓1 |
| 4 |
Celtics
54-26
|
15.45% | #4 | #3 | – |
| 5 |
Knicks
53-28
|
10.62% | #5 | #6 | – |
| 6 |
Rockets
51-29
|
7.58% | #8 | #8 | – |
| 7 |
Nuggets
52-28
|
3.30% | #7 | #4 | ↓1 |
| 8 |
Cavaliers
51-29
|
3.12% | #6 | #5 | ↓1 |
Sources: Basketball Reference Championship Odds · Rotowire futures, as of April 10, 2026.
Holds the top spot for another week. Small drop in title probability this week (25.42% to 23.22%). Minor slip in probability, but the Thunder remain the team to beat. Solid on both sides of the ball.
Climbed 1 position this week, up from #3. Minor dip in title probability (18.93% to 18.38%). Our model sees them higher than the consensus. BBRef has #3, books #7. Solid on both sides of the ball.
Slipped to #3 after holding #2 last week. Title probability slipped slightly, from 20.45% to 18.04%. Near-consensus across all three sources, within one spot of each other. Top-tier offense and defense.
Holding at #4 for another week. Title probability slipped slightly, from 16.43% to 15.45%. Close alignment between our model, BBRef (#4), and the books (#3). Dominant on both sides of the ball.
Unchanged at #5 from last week. Minor dip in title probability (11.13% to 10.62%). Near-consensus across all three sources, within one spot of each other. No standout weakness. Balanced roster profile.
New to the contender shortlist this week at #6. Debuts with a 7.58% title probability in our model. Our model sees them higher than the consensus. BBRef has #8, books #8. No standout weakness. Balanced roster profile.
Slipped to #7 after holding #6 last week. Title probability slipped slightly, from 5.25% to 3.3%. Books see them at #4, ahead of where our model places them. Powered by a top-1 offense. Defensive ranking (#21) is a concern.
Dropped 1 position, falling from #7. Slight uptick in title probability (2.26% to 3.12%). Both BBRef (#6) and the books (#5) rank them higher than we do. Solid but no standout on either end.
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