The regular season is done. Here's our final list of championship contenders.
All three sources agree: the Thunder are the top title contender this week. The Pistons (19.83%) and Celtics (18.98%) follow behind, both trending up.
No longer meeting our contender threshold: the Houston Rockets, Cleveland Cavaliers. The books have the Cleveland Cavaliers at #5, but our model doesn't see them as contenders.
| # | Team | Prob | BBRef | Books | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Thunder
64-18
|
25.05% | #1 | #1 | – |
| 2 |
Pistons
60-22
|
19.83% | #3 | #7 | ↑1 |
| 3 |
Celtics
56-26
|
18.98% | #4 | #3 | ↑1 |
| 4 |
Spurs
62-21
|
17.16% | #2 | #2 | ↓2 |
| 5 |
Knicks
54-29
|
11.46% | #5 | #6 | – |
| 6 |
Nuggets
54-28
|
7.48% | #6 | #4 | ↑1 |
Sources: Basketball Reference Championship Odds · Rotowire futures, as of April 15, 2026.
No change at the top. Remains the frontrunner. Small gain in title probability this week (23.38% to 25.05%). The gap keeps growing. The Thunder are pulling away. Balanced on both ends, no glaring weakness.
Climbed 1 position this week, up from #3. Title probability ticking up, from 17.23% to 19.83%. Our model sees them higher than the consensus. BBRef has #3, books #7. No standout weakness. Balanced roster profile.
Climbed 1 position this week, up from #4. Slight uptick in title probability (16.85% to 18.98%). Close alignment between our model, BBRef (#4), and the books (#3). Elite on both ends.
Dropped 2 positions, falling from #2. Small drop in title probability this week (18.17% to 17.16%). Our model is less bullish here. BBRef has them #2, books at #2. Dominant on both sides of the ball.
Unchanged at #5 from last week. Slight uptick in title probability (10.69% to 11.46%). All three models within a single position. Minor positional difference only. No standout weakness. Balanced roster profile.
Up 1 spot from last week (#7). Title probability on the rise with a +4.16% gain (3.32% to 7.48%). Books see them at #4, ahead of where our model places them. Offense-driven contender. The defense (#21) is the question mark.
Since 2012, every NBA champion has been flagged by our model as a genuine contender.
Our model also identifies daily value bets throughout the season. +15.3% ROI over 3 seasons of tracked results.
See today's edges
NBAprediction