Here's where the race stands heading into Week 3.
The Rockets top both our model and BBRef, but the sportsbooks rank them #6. The Pistons (20.8%) and Trail Blazers (17.59%) follow behind, both surging.
Joining the contender list: the Spurs and the 76ers. The Raptors and the Celtics fall below our contender threshold. Notable absences from our list: the Thunder (#2 with the books), the Timberwolves (#3 at BBRef), the Knicks (#3 with the books) and the Warriors (#7 at BBRef).
| # | Team | Prob | BBRef | Books | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rockets
7-2
|
22.67% | #1 | #6 | – |
| 2 |
Pistons
6-2
|
20.80% | #8 | #9 | ↑4 |
| 3 |
Trail Blazers
6-1
|
17.59% | #2 | #12 | ↑2 |
| 4 |
Grizzlies
6-2
|
16.21% | #5 | #18 | – |
| 5 |
Lakers
7-2
|
11.54% | #6 | #12 | ↓2 |
| 6 |
Spurs
6-2
|
8.92% | #4 | #1 | – |
| 7 |
76ers
8-1
|
2.00% | #12 | #3 | – |
Sources: Basketball Reference Championship Odds · Rotowire futures, as of November 6, 2026.
Small drop in title probability this week (25.27% to 22.67%). Minor slip in probability, but the Rockets remain the team to beat. Solid on both sides of the ball.
Moved up to #2 after sitting at #6 last week. Big jump in title probability, from 9.19% to 20.8% (+11.61 pts). Ranked higher by our model than BBRef (#8) or the sportsbooks (#9). Elite defense, but the offense (#17) is the question mark.
Moved up to #3 after sitting at #5 last week. Title probability surging: 17.59% this week vs 13.86% last week (+3.73 pts). The books have them lower at #12. Our model sees more value. Powered by the league's best offense. Defensive ranking (#11) is a concern.
Unchanged at #4 from last week. Slight uptick in title probability (13.94% to 16.21%). Ranked higher by our model than BBRef (#5) or the sportsbooks (#18). Elite on both ends.
Slipped to #5 after holding #3 last week. Notable drop in title probability, from 15.91% to 11.54% (-4.37 pts). Our model is more bullish than both Basketball Reference (#6) and the books (#12). Offense-driven contender. The defense (#18) is the question mark.
Enters the shortlist at #6 this week. Title probability now at 8.92% after crossing our contender threshold. Both BBRef (#4) and the books (#1) rank them higher than we do. Elite defense, but the offense (#11) is the question mark.
New to the contender shortlist this week at #7. Title probability now at 2.0% after crossing our contender threshold. The sportsbooks have them higher at #3. Our model ranks them lower. Anchored by a top-2 defense. Offense (#20) needs to improve.
Since 2012, every NBA champion has been flagged by our model as a genuine contender.
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