Here's where the race stands heading into Week 4.
No debate at the top: the Spurs lead the championship race across the board. The Timberwolves (17.74%) follow at #2, new to the shortlist. The Rockets (17.5%) sit at #3, fading.
New to the shortlist this week: the Timberwolves, the Warriors, the Celtics and the Thunder. The Pistons, the Grizzlies, the Trail Blazers and the 76ers fall below our contender threshold. Rated highly elsewhere but not on our shortlist: the Knicks (#5 with the books).
| # | Team | Prob | BBRef | Books | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Spurs
9-2
|
21.28% | #1 | #1 | ↑4 |
| 2 |
Timberwolves
8-3
|
17.74% | #5 | #7 | – |
| 3 |
Rockets
8-3
|
17.50% | #2 | #6 | ↓2 |
| 4 |
Warriors
8-3
|
15.07% | #3 | #14 | – |
| 5 |
Celtics
8-2
|
11.50% | #7 | #4 | – |
| 6 |
Lakers
10-2
|
8.75% | #6 | #10 | – |
| 7 |
Thunder
8-2
|
8.16% | #8 | #2 | – |
Sources: Basketball Reference Championship Odds · Rotowire futures, as of November 11, 2026.
Title probability surging: 21.28% this week vs 10.68% last week (+10.6 pts). New frontrunner: the Spurs climb from #5 to #1. Top-tier offense and defense.
Debuts at #2 with a 17.74% title probability. Ranked higher by our model than BBRef (#5) or the sportsbooks (#7). Balanced on both ends, no glaring weakness.
Down 2 spots from last week (#1). Significant decline in title probability (24.85% to 17.5%, -7.35 pts). Sportsbooks rank them #6, below our #3. We're more optimistic. No standout weakness. Balanced roster profile.
Enters the shortlist at #4, with a 15.07% title probability. Our model and BBRef are more bullish than the books (#14). Elite offense, but the defense (#11) needs to hold up in the playoffs.
Debuts at #5 with an 11.5% title probability. Books see them at #4, ahead of where our model places them. No standout weakness. Balanced roster profile.
Holding at #6 for another week. Small drop in title probability this week (8.99% to 8.75%). The books have them lower at #10. Our model sees more value. Powered by the league's best offense. Defensive ranking (#18) is a concern.
Crosses our contender threshold at #7 (8.16% title probability). Favored by the books (#2) but our model is less convinced. Built on defense. The offense (#16) will need to step up in the playoffs.
Since 2012, every NBA champion has been flagged by our model as a genuine contender.
Our model also identifies daily value bets throughout the season. +11.6% ROI over 3 seasons of publicly tracked results.
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