The 2025-2026 NBA awards are in. Our model went 4 for 4 this season, correctly predicting the MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Sixth Man of the Year.
31.1 PTS 4.3 REB 6.6 AST 1.4 STL 0.8 BLK
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his second consecutive MVP award, collecting 83 of 100 first-place votes. He shot a career-best 55.3 percent from the field and led Oklahoma City to a league-best 64-18 record for the second straight season. He did it while Jalen Williams was limited to 33 games and multiple key rotation pieces missed 25 or more games. Nikola Jokic finished second with 10 first-place votes, Victor Wembanyama third with five.
Our model had Gilgeous-Alexander at #1 all season long, with a final MVP Score of 46.71 over Jokic's 46.16. The gap was tight in the numbers but never in doubt at the top. That makes 14 correct MVP predictions out of 15 since 2012, a 93 percent success rate. The only miss remains the 2016-2017 season, when we picked James Harden over Russell Westbrook.
Cooper Flagg took the award after a strong first season with Dallas. Our model ranked him #1 among rookies with a score of 39.66, ahead of Kon Knueppel (36.54) and VJ Edgecombe (33.54). The ROY model now sits at a 73 percent hit rate over the last fifteen seasons.
24.9 PTS 11.4 REB 3.1 BLK
Victor Wembanyama won the award unanimously, a first in NBA history. He anchored a Spurs defense that returned San Antonio to the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Our defensive model had him ranked #1.
13.2 PTS 5.4 REB 1.4 AST
Keldon Johnson earned the award after appearing in all 82 games off the San Antonio bench. His 1,081 bench points set a franchise record. Our model had him at #1 with a score of 19.44, and the 6th Man model extends its perfect streak to eight consecutive correct picks.
Going 4 for 4 on major awards caps a strong season for the model. The MVP track record at 14 of 15 speaks for itself, but the depth of accuracy across awards, each relying on a different application of Impact Performance, is what separates this model from standard projections. Every prediction was published before the season ended and is archived on this site.
Our model also identifies daily value bets throughout the season. +15.8% ROI over 3 seasons of tracked results.
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